This assessment element should provide information on the prognosis and course of the condition when untreated. This information is relevant for appraising the overall value of the technology. A technology targeted to cure a life-threatening condition has a different significance from a technology intended to alleviate the symptoms of self-limiting conditions. It may also guide the assessment of the predicted value or effectiveness of the technology, as technologies may work differently at different stages or severity grades of the disease, and there may be a relationship between earlier intervention and better prognosis. This element should also provide information on the time lag between the onset of disease and the symptoms or other findings that eventually trigger the need of diagnostics and care.

Sources: text books, HTAs, guidelines, epidemiological reviews or studies. Method: A descriptive summary.

Burls 2000 {1}, Busse 2002 {2}, Liberati 1997 {3}, Imaz-Iglesia 1999, Kristensen 2007 {24}